The NBA recently released an analytics report that challenges the commonly held belief that load management reduces the risk of injuries in players. This report, produced by IQVIA Injury Surveillance & Analytics, was sent to NBA teams and select media members, aiming to shed light on the connection between load management and player injuries. In this article, we will critically analyze the report’s findings and explore whether load management truly proves effective in preventing injuries.
The 57-page report concludes that there is no correlation between load management and a reduced risk of injuries. It specifically looks at three key factors: game participation frequency, schedule density, and cumulative NBA participation. According to the report, missing games for rest or load management does not decrease the likelihood of in-season injuries. Moreover, injury rates did not increase during or immediately after periods of dense schedules. These conclusions held true even after considering variables like player age, minutes played, and injury history.
To arrive at these conclusions, the report examined ten years of data from the 2013-14 season to the 2022-23 season. The sample consisted of 150 “starter-level players” each season, including All-Stars, top 10 draft picks, and players with the most total minutes played from the previous season. By focusing on single-game absences rather than consecutive absences, the report attempted to narrow down its findings. However, the report acknowledges its limitations, such as the inability to analyze data from outside the ten-year window and the variations in load management approaches among teams.
One noteworthy trend highlighted in the report is the significant increase in single-game absences among starter-level players over the past decade. While the number of missed games rose from 169 in the 2014-15 season to 380 in the 2022-23 season, the number of regular-season injuries among these players also reached a ten-season high. This suggests that load management alone may not be responsible for reducing injuries and that other factors contribute to players’ health and availability on the court.
The report addresses the ongoing debate around star players missing games. In recent decades, the average number of games missed by star players has risen significantly. Although load management may contribute to this increase, NBA senior vice president of player matters, Dave Weiss, believes that injuries play a more substantial role. He points out that single-game absences for players have increased by about five times over the past 20 years, indicating that load management cannot be solely blamed for the rise in missed games.
The report’s findings align with previous statements by Joe Dumars, the NBA’s executive vice president of basketball operations, and Commissioner Adam Silver. Both Dumars and Silver have expressed skepticism about the data-driven proof behind load management. Silver acknowledged that the science and medical data on load management are “mixed,” indicating that more extensive research is necessary to draw definitive conclusions.
While the report provides valuable insights into the connection between load management and injury risk, it emphasizes that it does not prove that load management is ineffective. Instead, it highlights the complex interplay of various factors influencing player health and longevity. As the debate surrounding load management continues, it becomes crucial for teams, players, and the league to collaborate in conducting rigorous research to ascertain the impact of load management on player performance and well-being.
The NBA’s recent analytics report challenges the conventional wisdom that load management reduces the risk of injuries in players. Through a comprehensive analysis of ten years’ worth of data, the report concludes that load management does not correlate with a reduction in injury risk. However, it is crucial to interpret the findings with caution and acknowledge the limitations of the study. As the league continues to grapple with load management debates, further research is necessary to gain a more nuanced understanding of its impact on player health and overall performance.
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