The recent trade that sent Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins has sparked excitement throughout the NHL community. As he joins the multi-titled Pittsburgh team, fantasy hockey enthusiasts are eager to analyze the potential impact this move will have on their teams. Karlsson, a former Shark, now has the opportunity to thrive in a more dynamic scoring setting in Pennsylvania. While it may be unrealistic for Karlsson to replicate his Norris-winning, 101-point season from last year, playing alongside talented players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel is expected to elevate his overall performance.
An Increase in Point Production
The Penguins, despite failing to make the playoffs last season, still managed to average 0.34 more goals per game than the San Jose Sharks. With the support of star forwards Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel, Karlsson is projected to spend most of his ice time with these prolific playmakers. This increased offensive firepower is likely to result in more scoring opportunities for Karlsson, both at even strength and on the power play. While Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl were reliable linemates in San Jose, the new environment in Pittsburgh promises to provide Karlsson with an even stronger supporting cast.
Last season, Karlsson only scored 25% of his 101 points on the power play. In comparison, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes excelled on the man-advantage, collecting 45% of his 76 total points in that situation. With the Penguins, Karlsson is expected to anchor the team’s No. 1 power play unit, which presents a significant opportunity for him to increase his production in this area. This adds extra value to Karlsson’s fantasy stock, particularly in leagues that heavily reward power play points. While it may be unrealistic to expect Karlsson to match his previous exceptional season, a projection of around 80 points with 35 earned on the power play by 2023-24 seems reasonable. Additionally, he is likely to contribute over 200 shots and average 25 minutes of ice time per game.
Beneficiaries of the Karlsson Trade
The trade not only elevates Karlsson’s fantasy value but also impacts other players on the Penguins’ roster. One player expected to benefit greatly from the offensive-defenseman joining the team is Rickard Rakell, who may find himself on the top power play unit alongside Karlsson, Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel. This placement presents a significant opportunity for Rakell to have a breakout season, and he should be targeted accordingly in fantasy drafts. Additionally, Bryan Rust could also potentially find a spot on the top power play unit, further enhancing his fantasy value.
At even strength, Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson might be paired with Karlsson on the top defensive pairing. This partnership not only increases their fantasy value but also makes them attractive assets in leagues that reward blocked shots. Fantasy owners should closely monitor who ends up partnering with Karlsson during training camp as this can significantly impact their production.
One player who may experience a decline in fantasy value as a result of the Karlsson trade is Kris Letang. Letang will likely be relegated to the second power play unit and defensive pairing. While this may be a blow to his fantasy stock, Letang’s focus is undoubtedly on the team’s success rather than personal statistics. He will still be a valuable contributor to the Penguins’ lineup and may continue to provide solid defensive play.
The Impact on the San Jose Sharks
With the departure of Karlsson, the San Jose Sharks will need to reassess their power play strategy. Mario Ferraro is expected to anchor the team’s No. 1 power play unit, at least initially. However, Matt Benning could potentially challenge for that role as well. Until the Sharks’ rebuilding process becomes clearer, Ferraro and Benning should only be considered as late sleeper picks in deeper fantasy leagues.
The San Jose Sharks are undoubtedly a team in transition. As they navigate the rebuilding process, fantasy owners should be cautious when selecting players from their roster. It may take time for the team to find its new identity and for individual players to establish themselves as reliable fantasy assets. Monitoring their progress throughout the season will be essential for fantasy hockey success.
Erik Karlsson’s trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins has the potential to significantly impact fantasy hockey. Playing alongside elite talent like Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel should elevate Karlsson’s overall performance and increase his point production. The trade also presents opportunities for other players on the Penguins’ roster, such as Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, to excel in fantasy leagues. On the other hand, Kris Letang may experience a decline in fantasy value with a reduced role on the power play. As for the San Jose Sharks, they are in a rebuilding phase, and fantasy owners should approach their players with caution. Overall, the Karlsson trade adds excitement and anticipation to the upcoming fantasy hockey season as managers attempt to capitalize on the potential fantasy value of these players.
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