When it comes to Super Bowl LVIII, there are countless game props available for betting. It can be overwhelming to sift through all the options and determine which ones offer the most value. To aid in your decision-making process, NFL betting experts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Anita Marks, Kevin Pulsifer, and Aaron Schatz have provided their insights on the props they like the most. Additionally, Mackenzie Kraemer offers valuable betting nuggets to consider. Let’s delve into their recommendations and analysis to find the best game props to bet on for the big game.
Schatz believes that the OVER for the entire game is a favorable bet. Although both teams possess formidable defenses, the offensive capabilities of the 49ers and the Chiefs cannot be underestimated. Schatz points out that the 49ers had the ninth-best offense of the past 43 years according to his DVOA ratings, and the Chiefs’ offense, despite some issues, still ranked eighth. Specifically, Schatz suggests taking the over for the first half, as both defenses tend to perform better after halftime. With the expectation of an initial burst of scoring followed by defensive adjustments, Schatz recommends betting on the first-half total points to exceed 23.5.
Total Sacks in the Game
Walder takes a different approach by offering an under bet on the total sacks in the game. He introduces a new model dedicated to sack avoidance, highlighting Patrick Mahomes’ elite ability in this area. With Mahomes boasting the second-lowest sack rate in the league, Walder believes the under on 4.5 total sacks is a smart pick. Additionally, he notes that Brock Purdy, the 49ers quarterback, is also better than average at avoiding sacks. The model Walder employed values the under at -162, making this prop bet compelling.
Jumping to an Early Lead
Fulghum likes the Chiefs to establish an early lead due to their quarterback’s (Mahomes) experience advantage and head coach Andy Reid’s ability to craft successful game plans with extra days of rest. However, he does not discount the resilience of the 49ers and anticipates their ability to respond to adversity. Fulghum suggests a longshot prop bet on the 1st Quarter/Halftime Result, specifically the outcome of Chiefs/Draw (+3000). If the Chiefs grab a first-quarter lead but the 49ers manage to claw back and tie the game before halftime, this bet could yield significant returns.
Pulsifer presents an alternate perspective on the game script, aligning with Fulghum’s belief in the Chiefs’ early lead. However, Pulsifer adds a twist by suggesting a Chiefs shutout in the first quarter, providing odds of +320. Historically, Super Bowls have begun slowly, with few total possessions in the opening quarter. Pulsifer points out that in the Chiefs’ recent playoff games against San Francisco, there have only been 2-3 total possessions in the first quarter. It is plausible that the 49ers might have limited opportunities in this timeframe, leading to a potential shutout for the Chiefs.
Marks favors a bet on Kansas City to score on their first drive. She highlights K.C.’s track record of scoring on their opening drive in all three playoff games and their first two drives against the Ravens, who possessed the best defense in the playoffs. With Andy Reid’s ability to script the first offensive series magnifying their chances, Marks recommends betting on Kansas City to set the tone early in the game.
Walder offers an intriguing longshot prop by suggesting a bet on no sacks in the game, offering odds of 40-1. His model incorporates various factors such as quarterbacks’ sack avoidance skills, the quality of pass rushes, and offensive line strength. Walder’s model values this prop at 33-1, indicating that there might be value in such a longshot bet.
Pulsifer expects a closely contested game with no team dominating. He chooses to bet on the largest lead of the game being under 14.5 points. The Chiefs have rarely held a lead of more than 14 points in their recent games, and the 49ers’ defense has proven capable of containing their opponents. With the expectation of a tightly contested matchup, Pulsifer believes that the largest lead will not exceed 14.5 points.
Total Points by Kansas City
Marks expresses confidence in Kansas City’s ability to put up points against the 49ers’ defense. Having had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, Marks believes that K.C. is well-equipped to exploit the weaknesses of San Francisco’s defense. Additionally, she notes that Mahomes has a strong track record indoors, averaging 27 points per game in indoor venues. Marks recommends betting on Kansas City to score over 23.5 total points in the game.
In addition to the experts’ opinions, there are several other intriguing game props worth considering. The odds for the shortest touchdown are set at 1.5 yards (under -150), a bet that has paid off in recent Super Bowls. The second half has consistently had fewer points in Chiefs games, making the under (-120) for more second-half points than first-half points an attractive wager. The 49ers’ propensity for scoring touchdowns on opening drives makes the odds of +200 for a touchdown on their opening drive appealing. Lastly, both teams are given -115 odds to make the shortest field goal, with statistical trends favoring Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker in this category.
As Super Bowl LVIII approaches, carefully selecting the right game props to bet on can enhance your enjoyment and potentially yield profitable returns. By considering the insights and recommendations of NFL betting experts, you can make informed decisions when placing your bets. Remember to evaluate each prop based on its odds, supporting data, and your own analysis. Whether you choose to follow the experts’ picks or explore other game props, the key is to approach your betting endeavors with a critical mindset and enjoy the excitement of the big game.
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